As mentioned in earlier blog posts also, we have been seller of many of our stocks like Adani enterprise, Rain industries (Which now is multi bagger, though we have small holding left and will be initiating sell soon), Westlife development etc. (Mostly small and Mid-caps) and buyers of Reliance, Tata motors, Jubilant food works and Adlabs entertainment.
Last week Westlife Development the master franchisee of McDonald’s in the south and west India declared their annual numbers.
We analyzed the numbers and are not at all happy with them . its been years and years of losses and sales are marginally higher to around 900 crores. Marcet cap is around 4000 crore and we now getting nervous about potential returns from this stock.
We have accumulated this stock at around 160-175 and started selling it around 250 with last lot sold at 220 .
So for last one month markets are flirting at 9000 level to 9300 level and we are booking profits bit by bit.
We have booked some profits in Adani , Rain , Westlife ,Escorts , Dewan housing etc and sitting on 15 % cash as of now. Some of the profits booked from small and mid cap like associated alcohol etc are plowed back into Reliance and Tata Motors.
So, it’s tough times as — “I will tell you the secret to getting rich on Wall Street. You try to be greedy when others are fearful. And you try to be fearful when others are greedy. –Warren Buffett”
We are big fans of theme parks but the problem in India is either they are too expensive like wonderla holidays or the quality of theme park is way below the standards (Let’s not name the small theme parks with the shitty crowd and stuff).
So Nifty is knocking at 9000/– Historic moment indeed. Fantastic volatility, first the lows of 6800 during last Jan ’16 – Feb’ 16, Then it went to highs of 8800, after that, it again went down to 8000 due to demonetisation & Trump(On same day ) and after that, a straight forward bullish march to 9000/-
We at Shikhar capital were lucky enough to get these lows and highs correct even though we don’t speculate. But since we are low on capital we have to churn our portfolios to get some more juice. If capital allows we would love to keep our portfolio intact for years together.
So, Nifty at the doorsteps of 9000, all the bears are hiding and bulls are on the rampage , so the tide is getting higher.The D mart IPO of 18000 Crores is one of the biggest and going to suck liquidity but who cares. 2008 bull market ended with Reliance power IPO, but before that DLF IPO (IPO price 1000 right now at 145 ) and Big Bazaar IPO (IPO price 1000 if I am correct and now n number of companies with god knows the complexity of valuations huh….). So are we on the cusp of the end of this run … we at SHIKHAR CAPITAL don’t think so…..(more…)
So,after a long time markets are above 8800. And again the cigar butt stocks are going to the stratosphere. It’s becoming really difficult to recommend stocks when the stock market are at the higher end of valuations, BTW we still believe we are on to 9600/- soon. At this point of time, we at SHIKHAR CAPITAL are “All In” as they say in Poker, With top recommendations include Westlife and Jubilant food works.
One of the toughest businesses in the world is airlines. Risks are too high and profit forecasts always go for a toss. There are long talks by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger on why airlines are the bad business and their stocks even worst. (more…)
How Patanjali has become one of the fastest growing Indian company …
A couple of days back I visited a Patanjali superstore in Pune. What I saw was just unbelievable. The quality of store and the arrangements with new Patanjali products was way better than any of the Big Bazars or Reliance retails(By the way reliance retail stinks).
The wow factor is the product range being offered by Patanjali. I never expected to see sunscreen lotions or Kajal, the Biscuits or choco cornflakes, the Chocolates. All these products which have been the strong hold of companies like Nestle, HUL have been copied in every way. By the way, this reminds me of famous quote “Good artists copy, great artists steal. Pablo Picasso”(more…)