Just like 1929 and then 1987, and then 2001, and then 2008!!!
So stock market is at all time high and there is so much gush of liquidity that all investors are astonished. Even after so much of FII selling, markets are at the top because of support from the domestic investors. With every Mutual fund manager brainwashing for SIP’s the markets may have no dearth of liquidity in near future. Mutual funds which are 100% invested all the time are the happiest lot and fund managers who are or were waiting for markets to correct are having a hard time.
“Biggest bubble of all time .. ruining people across nations, geographies, races and ages ….’
Above graph simply explains what bitcoin has grown into. There is an intense competition between companies like Amazon, Google, Apple, Microsoft and others who every second are working on innovations, are strategizing on their future and then there are investors who bet invest on these companies and all of this takes decades.
Last week Westlife Development the master franchisee of McDonald’s in the south and west India declared their annual numbers.
We analyzed the numbers and are not at all happy with them . its been years and years of losses and sales are marginally higher to around 900 crores. Marcet cap is around 4000 crore and we now getting nervous about potential returns from this stock.
We have accumulated this stock at around 160-175 and started selling it around 250 with last lot sold at 220 .
So for last one month markets are flirting at 9000 level to 9300 level and we are booking profits bit by bit.
We have booked some profits in Adani , Rain , Westlife ,Escorts , Dewan housing etc and sitting on 15 % cash as of now. Some of the profits booked from small and mid cap like associated alcohol etc are plowed back into Reliance and Tata Motors.
So, it’s tough times as — “I will tell you the secret to getting rich on Wall Street. You try to be greedy when others are fearful. And you try to be fearful when others are greedy. –Warren Buffett”
We are big fans of theme parks but the problem in India is either they are too expensive like wonderla holidays or the quality of theme park is way below the standards (Let’s not name the small theme parks with the shitty crowd and stuff).
So Nifty is knocking at 9000/– Historic moment indeed. Fantastic volatility, first the lows of 6800 during last Jan ’16 – Feb’ 16, Then it went to highs of 8800, after that, it again went down to 8000 due to demonetisation & Trump(On same day ) and after that, a straight forward bullish march to 9000/-
We at Shikhar capital were lucky enough to get these lows and highs correct even though we don’t speculate. But since we are low on capital we have to churn our portfolios to get some more juice. If capital allows we would love to keep our portfolio intact for years together.
Warren Buffet gave two rules for successful investing.
(1) Don’t lose money
(2) Never forget Rule no 1.
Why did he talk about not losing money instead of telling us to compound our capital at very high rates? This is because compounding works against us if we lose capital. As they say To finish first you must first finish. The key in investing is to stay in the game for a very long time without losing a lot of capital. This is what our models [Evolution, Warren Buffett, Moore’s Law] did. They played the game for a very long time without losing much. (more…)