Just like 1929 and then 1987, and then 2001, and then 2008!!!
So stock market is at all time high and there is so much gush of liquidity that all investors are astonished. Even after so much of FII selling, markets are at the top because of support from the domestic investors. With every Mutual fund manager brainwashing for SIP’s the markets may have no dearth of liquidity in near future. Mutual funds which are 100% invested all the time are the happiest lot and fund managers who are or were waiting for markets to correct are having a hard time.
As mentioned in earlier blog posts also, we have been seller of many of our stocks like Adani enterprise, Rain industries (Which now is multi bagger, though we have small holding left and will be initiating sell soon), Westlife development etc. (Mostly small and Mid-caps) and buyers of Reliance, Tata motors, Jubilant food works and Adlabs entertainment.
Last week Westlife Development the master franchisee of McDonald’s in the south and west India declared their annual numbers.
We analyzed the numbers and are not at all happy with them . its been years and years of losses and sales are marginally higher to around 900 crores. Marcet cap is around 4000 crore and we now getting nervous about potential returns from this stock.
We have accumulated this stock at around 160-175 and started selling it around 250 with last lot sold at 220 .
So for last one month markets are flirting at 9000 level to 9300 level and we are booking profits bit by bit.
We have booked some profits in Adani , Rain , Westlife ,Escorts , Dewan housing etc and sitting on 15 % cash as of now. Some of the profits booked from small and mid cap like associated alcohol etc are plowed back into Reliance and Tata Motors.
So, it’s tough times as — “I will tell you the secret to getting rich on Wall Street. You try to be greedy when others are fearful. And you try to be fearful when others are greedy. –Warren Buffett”
We are big fans of theme parks but the problem in India is either they are too expensive like wonderla holidays or the quality of theme park is way below the standards (Let’s not name the small theme parks with the shitty crowd and stuff).
So market still stares at 9000/- levels and our earlier targets of 9400-9600 are still intact.
However, again the mid cap and small cap stocks are hitting roughs and whenever stocks like Lycos starts hitting upper circuit we get skeptical. Stocks like Delta corp are up 70 % from Demonetisation and Brexit low. How come they are commanding such (more…)
One of the toughest businesses in the world is airlines. Risks are too high and profit forecasts always go for a toss. There are long talks by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger on why airlines are the bad business and their stocks even worst. (more…)