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Market commentary – Nov 2017 Markets top when you find no reason to worry ………. Be worried!!!

Just like 1929 and then 1987, and then 2001, and then 2008!!!

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So stock market is at all time high and there is so much gush of liquidity that all investors are astonished. Even after so much of FII selling, markets are at the top because of support from the domestic investors.  With every Mutual fund manager brainwashing for SIP’s the markets may have no dearth of liquidity in near future. Mutual funds which are 100% invested all the time are the happiest lot and fund managers who are or were waiting for markets to correct are having a hard time.

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Portfolio commentary New buy/sell Stocks– Nov 2017

As mentioned in earlier blog posts also, we have been seller of many of our stocks like Adani enterprise, Rain industries (Which now is multi bagger, though we have small holding left and will be initiating sell soon), Westlife development etc. (Mostly small and Mid-caps) and buyers of Reliance, Tata motors, Jubilant food works and Adlabs entertainment.

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Why we are out of Westlife(Mcdonald’s)?

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Last week Westlife Development the master franchisee of McDonald’s in the south and west India declared their annual numbers. 

We analyzed the numbers and are not at all happy with them . its been years and years of losses and sales are marginally higher to around 900 crores. Marcet cap is around 4000 crore and we now getting nervous about potential returns from this stock.

We have accumulated this stock at around 160-175 and started selling it around 250 with last lot sold at 220 .

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Markets @Euphoric Levels… We at Shikharcapital sitting like lame ducks .. why ? why ? why ?

So for last one month markets are flirting at 9000 level to 9300 level and we are booking profits bit by bit.

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We have booked some profits in Adani , Rain , Westlife , Escorts , Dewan housing etc and sitting on 15 % cash as of now. Some of the profits booked from small and mid cap like associated alcohol etc are plowed back into Reliance and Tata Motors.

So, it’s tough times as — “I will tell you the secret to getting rich on Wall Street. You try to be greedy when others are fearful. And you try to be fearful when others are greedy. –Warren Buffett”

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Markets @9000/- and we have nothing to do ….!!WRONG!!

So markets crossed 9000 and we at Shikhar capital have nothing to do except waiting………………………………………………….

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For  killing time we are exploring company’s which are out of flavor or which wee have booked good profits. To name a few we are completely out from Associated alcohol, (more…)

@9000 we ran away … whats up with Shikhar Capital???

“It takes character to sit with all that cash and to do nothing.I didn’t get top where I am by going after mediocre opportunities.”

Charles T. Munger, Poor Charlie’s Almanack: The Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger

“We both, Warren Buffett and I, insist on a lot of time being available almost every day to just sit and think. That is very uncommon in American business. We read and think.” – Charlie Munger

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We had got into 10% cash, booked some profits in Mid-cap names like Adani, Rain,  Reliance etc. and now we have cash and have nothing to do.

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Can Imagica create the magic for shareholders??

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We are big fans of theme parks but the problem in India is either they are too expensive like wonderla holidays or the quality of theme park is way below the standards (Let’s not name the small theme parks with the shitty crowd and stuff). 

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Market @ 9000/- What’s Shikhar Capital is doing???Booking profits and running !!

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So market still stares at 9000/- levels and our earlier targets of 9400-9600 are still intact.

However, again the mid cap and small cap stocks are hitting roughs and whenever stocks like Lycos starts hitting upper circuit we get skeptical. Stocks like Delta corp are up 70 % from Demonetisation and Brexit low. How come they are commanding such (more…)

What we in India can learn from Berkshire Hathways newsletter 2016-17

So the annual newsletter of Berkshire Hathway is out and has all the wisdom needed for a value investor

 (http://berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2016ltr.pdf)

 

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Since Indian markets are at their higher end of valuations and all the stock recommendations from Shikhar capita are doing pretty well, it’s become very difficult to recommend new stocks, However

we decided to decode warren Buffett’s annual newsletter and how we read it … (more…)

FMCG stocks, tough times ahead thanks to Patanjali

How Patanjali has become one of the fastest growing Indian company …

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A couple of days back I visited a Patanjali superstore in Pune. What I saw was just unbelievable. The quality of store and the arrangements with new Patanjali products was way better than any of the Big  Bazars or Reliance retails(By the way reliance retail stinks).

The wow factor is the product range being offered by Patanjali. I never expected to see sunscreen lotions or Kajal, the Biscuits or choco cornflakes, the Chocolates. All these products which have been the strong hold of companies like Nestle, HUL have been copied in every way. By the way, this reminds me of famous quote  “Good artists copy, great artists steal. Pablo Picasso” (more…)